Will an Asteroid Hit the Earth in 2032?

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Why Do Astronomers Study Asteroids?

Asteroids - Image generated by OpenAI Dall-E
Asteroids – Image generated by OpenAI Dall-E

Asteroids are space rocks that orbit the Sun, just like planets. Some come close to Earth, and astronomers want to track them to make sure they don’t pose a danger. Professional astronomers use powerful telescopes to discover and monitor asteroids, while amateur astronomers can also help by watching the night sky. Studying asteroids helps scientists understand how our solar system formed and protects our planet from potential collisions.

What is Asteroid 2024 YR4?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 by astronomers tracking near-Earth objects. At first, scientists thought there was a 3.1% chance that it could hit Earth in 2032. This estimate was based on early observations of its path through space. The asteroid orbits the Sun, and at times, it comes close to our planet. Because its exact path was unclear at first, astronomers needed more time to study it.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 80 meters (260 feet) in diameter, roughly the size of a football field. It is traveling through space at a speed of approximately 24 kilometers per second (54,000 miles per hour). Currently, it can be spotted in the night sky near the constellation Gemini.

What are the Odds it will Hit Earth?

Animation of 2024 YR4’s Earth impact probability over time (credit: NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies)
Animation of 2024 YR4’s Earth impact probability over time (credit: NASA/JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies)

Now that astronomers have collected more data, they have a much better understanding of 2024 YR4’s path. Scientists have used powerful telescopes, radar imaging, and computer simulations to refine its trajectory. By measuring its position over time, they can predict where it will be in the future. Observatories around the world have tracked its movement using optical telescopes, while radar data from facilities like NASA’s Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex have helped refine its speed and direction.

New calculations show that the asteroid will not hit Earth in 2032. In fact, the chance of impact is now so low that NASA considers it no longer a threat. At its closest approach, it will be several million kilometers from Earth, far enough to avoid any immediate danger. However, there is still a small chance—about 1.7%—that it could hit the Moon. Scientists will continue to watch it closely and update their predictions as they gather more information.

Keep Looking Up!

Even though 2024 YR4 won’t hit Earth, astronomers will keep searching the sky for other space rocks. You can join in too! Many amateur astronomers take part in asteroid hunting by observing the night sky and reporting their findings. One great way to get started is through the Astronomical League’s Asteroid Observing Program, which helps beginners learn how to track these fascinating objects.

Asteroids are a natural part of our solar system, and studying them helps us learn more about space. With astronomers and citizen scientists working together, we can keep our planet safe and continue to explore the wonders of the universe!

Clear skies and happy stargazing asteroid-gazing!